Abstract

Since January 1,2016, China has implemented the Two-child policy. The Two-child policy is contrast to the One-child policy which has been implemented for nearly 30 years by Chinese government. Since this Two-child policy is a basic national policy of China, its purpose is to determine a reasonable rate of population development. Whether the two-child policy can really achieve the desired effect. This article will discuss statistical methods and social realities.

Firstly, author uses the entropy weight with Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method. Eighteen indicators affecting the population were set up to establish an initial evaluation matrix according to the actual situation and determine the accurate weight of each indicator.

Secondly, the author makes predictions on China’s future population. In order to make sure the accuracy of the forecast, author makes second forecast of the modified value to reduce the noise caused by the entropy weight method. And the author discusses which method is suit for this question.

Finally, author analyzes this situation.

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