A Chaos Theory Perspective on Expert Decision-Making in Cyber Incident Response


  •  Virginia Mayo Policarpio    
  •  Michael Krantz    
  •  Kutub Thakur    

Abstract

This manuscript is an abridged version of a doctoral dissertation exploring the critical human dimensions of cyber incident response. Modern technology environments and volatile threat landscapes generate unpredictable cyber crises that strain traditional, rigid defense playbooks and demand unprecedented responder adaptability. To understand the critical human elements required to navigate these crises, this research applies chaos theory to analyze how expert cyber incident responders (CIRs) manage nonlinear, high-pressure events. Employing a qualitative phenomenological design, the study investigates the lived experience of expert CIRs, focusing on the cognitive and affective processes that drive decision-making during systemic failures. The findings reveal that successful incident resolution relies not on strict adherence to linear protocols, but on the rapid, iterative generation of novel solutions. Responders intentionally leverage course-correction as a core functional mechanism, transforming unexpected adversarial inputs into actionable intelligence via high-velocity feedback loops. By adapting chaos theory to cybersecurity operations, this study provides a theoretical model explaining how adaptive behaviors emerge under pressure. Ultimately, these insights offer a foundation for developing dynamic training and policy frameworks that cultivate cognitive flexibility and bolster organizational and national cyber resilience.



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
  • ISSN(Print): 1913-8989
  • ISSN(Online): 1913-8997
  • Started: 2008
  • Frequency: semiannual

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WJCI (2022): 0.636

Impact Factor 2022 (by WJCI):  0.419

h-index (January 2024): 43

i10-index (January 2024): 193

h5-index (January 2024): N/A

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