Abstract

The Sudan Gezira Scheme (SGS), a 2.1‑million‑feddan gravity‑fed irrigation system utilizing approximately 35% of Sudan’s Nile Water allocation, has experienced severe hydraulic deterioration, institutional fragmentation, and financial stress. This study provides a systems‑level quantitative assessment of SGS performance constraints and evaluates the potential gains achievable through digital transformation. Current irrigation performance shows ~15% conveyance losses, ~25% field application losses, and ~15% operational losses, resulting in only ~45% effective water use from the 6–7 billion m³ released annually from Roseires and Sennar Dams. The analysis indicates that canal rehabilitation alone could recover ~200 million m³ per year, while integrating IoT‑enabled flow sensors, automated farm‑gate control, remote sensing, and precision irrigation could reduce total losses to 10%, increase effective water use to ~55%, and generate up to 880 million m³ of additional usable irrigation water—equivalent to irrigating an extra 150,000–200,000 feddans of wheat.

Historical cropping‑intensity analysis shows a decline from 79% in 1990 to 45% by 2014 due to irrigation system deterioration, siltation, and institutional reforms. Scenario modelling demonstrates that restoring system capacity and applying digital water‑allocation tools could raise cropping intensity by 15–20 percentage points, translating into an additional 300,000–400,000 feddans under cultivation annually. Financial analysis of the Individual Account System (IAS) reveals that uniform irrigation and input charges—despite a 30–50% variation in actual irrigation frequency between head‑end and tail‑end farmers—produce yield gaps of up to 40% and income disparities exceeding 60%. Digital financial systems, mobile‑money integration, and real‑time input tracking can reduce accounting errors by >70% and enable transparent, farmer‑level profitability assessment.

Institutional network analysis shows that weak coordination among scheme authorities contributes to delays of 3–7 days in water delivery, causing yield losses of 10–25% for sensitive crops such as cotton and wheat. Digital communication platforms and automated water‑ordering systems could reduce these delays to <24 hours. The findings emphasize that digital transformation—when combined with hydraulic rehabilitation and governance reform—can significantly enhance water productivity, stabilize scheme finances, and strengthen SGS’s contribution to national food security, potentially increasing wheat self‑sufficiency by 20–30%. The pilot project should be formed and financed by public and privet sector with international organizations to monitor and correct the proposal model and measure irrigation performance and recognize attributed to different technologies management behaviors.

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