Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal


  •  José Pereira    

Abstract

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
  • Issn(Print): 1913-9004
  • Issn(Onlne): 1913-9012
  • Started: 2008
  • Frequency: monthly

Journal Metrics

Google-based Impact Factor (2019): 14.58

h-index (February 2019): 54

i10-index (February 2019): 453

h5-index (February 2019): 26

h5-median(February 2019): 35

( The data was calculated based on Google Scholar Citations. Click Here to Learn More. )

Contact