Research on Communication Products Diffusion in China Using Cellular Automata

Fang Ma, Gangling Chao

Abstract


Based on cellular automata (CA), the diffusion of communication products, namely the mobile phone (MP) and the landline telephone (LT), were modeled and simulated. The ordinary least squares (OLS) procedure and nonlinear regression method were carried out to estimate the diffusion parameters. The predicted results were compared with the actual data. It is found that: (1) the diffusion processes of mobile phone and landline telephone were successfully examined using cellular automata method, (2) the predicted results of mobile phone and landline telephone show four stages of the product life cycle, (3) the present situation of mobile phones in China is at the fast growth stage and the present situation of landline telephone is at the maturity stage, (4) the market of mobile communication is growing fast and has a brighter future and the landline communication market is meeting great challenges. The future competition will be more serious between the mobile communication and the landline communication. Both of them can benefit from introduction of advanced technology and new services because such a strategy has the potential to convert some consumers of one of communications into another communications. As for the whole communications, the innovation of technology and services will be generated and introduced into the industry of communications to drive the market.


Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v4n2p147

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

International Business Research  ISSN 1913-9004 (Print), ISSN 1913-9012 (Online)

Copyright © Canadian Center of Science and Education

To make sure that you can receive messages from us, please add the 'ccsenet.org' domain to your e-mail 'safe list'. If you do not receive e-mail in your 'inbox', check your 'bulk mail' or 'junk mail' folders.