Abstract

The present study focus on a statistical approach for improving climate prediction for the region of the Bouregreg basin in the northwest of Morocco. The aim was to examine the past drought conditions and to find their trend under climate change conditions. Past and future drought conditions were assessed using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) by considering the emission scenarios A2 and B2 for three periods 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. A statistical downscaling method was applied to the HadCM3 outputs for the station of Rabat to simulate the projected changes in precipitation and temperature. Results shows that annual precipitations under A2 scenario increased by 4.72 %, 4.75% and 4.50 % for the periods 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 respectively, for the B2 scenario increased by 4.19%, 5.0% and 4.58% for the 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods respectively. The annual mean maximum temperature under A2 scenario increased by 2.24%, 7.43% and 16.31% for 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods respectively, and for the B2 scenario increased by 3.07%, 6.97% and 10.0% for 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods respectively. The results showed also an overall decrease of annual and seasonal drought severity over the years. The annual and seasonal drought severity and duration for the periods 2025-2045 and 2055-2070 will increase under A2 and decrease under B2 scenario.

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