MDG Hunger Target: Analysis of Cereal Production System and the Evaluation of Cereal Production Potential in Africa

  •  Xingna Zhang    
  •  Hualou Long    


The contradiction between Africa’s GDP growth and poverty has raised much debate in the scientific community, which casts much doubt on Africa’s prospect in achieving MDG (Millenium Development Goals) hunger target. To better tackle this issue, we resort to grey system theory for solution. Firstly, by grey relational analysis (GRA), we aim to find out the relationship between the population undernourished (PU, the major index of MDG hunger target), and cereal production (CP). Then we establish a grey system composed of 8 factors, to identify the major ones in affecting cereal production. Through GRA and grey prediction model GM(1,1), the grey relations between each set of 2 factors out of the 8, as mentioned above, are analyzed and predicted. Next, we evaluate the short-term performance of Africa in reaching MDG hunger target by utilizing GM(1,1) as well. Finally, long-term continental and national cereal productions are forecasted by GM(1,1) from 2021 to 2051, based on data 1961-2011, which can serve as a signifier for Africa’s CPP (cereal production prediction) and the corresponding potential in cutting down PU in the long run. The results from this study suggest that PU and CP are related so that we could cut down PU by promoting CPP, that different factors is likely to show different extents of projected relativeness with cereal production in the future, and that the national disparities of cereal production in Africa are inclined to rise, although the majority of African countries may be able to enjoy a remarkable boost in cereal production prediction. Most importantly, 38% of Africa countries show encouraging signs in achieving MDG hunger target on the national level, indicating that we need to be very cautious in believing in Africa’s ability of achieving it on the whole continent. Finally, several methods and suggestions in eradicating hunger and promoting cereal production are come up with.

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