Research on Prediction of China’s Population Development from 2008 to 2050

Kepei Men, Liangyu Jiang, Hongting Zhu

Abstract


Population system is a typical grey system. In this paper, we establish two new grey models of population prediction: discrete grey increment model(DGIM) and grey increment model with new initial value(NGIM). By contrasting, we did simulation and test prediction through utilizing a large amount of data. The results indicate that the two new models prove more accurate than GM(1, 1) model and other models. According to the latest statistical data of China’s population from 1949 to 2007, we predict the population development of China up to the year 2050 based on the two new models. Evidence shows that at the end of 2008, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 the total population will reach 1.32789, 1.3403, 1.3917, 1.428, 1.454 and 1.472 billion, respectively.

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Journal of Sustainable Development   ISSN 1913-9063 (Print)   ISSN 1913-9071 (Online)

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