A Study of the Condition of Timber Production in Iran and the Expected Production Rate in the Next Decade

kamran Adeli, Ali Yachkaschi, Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei, Asghar Fallah

Abstract


In countries with industrial forests, the first resource for providing domestic timber is their productive forests. Iran, a country that holds a few timber forests in the north, has implemented deterministic programming in the past few decades. Knowing the process of timber production in these forests and also the condition of these products that are affected by the above mentioned programming is very crucial. Therefore, the present study focuses on the timber production of Iran’s northern forests in a 33-year period (from 1978 to 2010), using simple regression analysis and time series. The results of square regression analysis revealed that this process has a significant relationship with the years under study and shows inconsistent changes. Furthermore, the overall inflation in domestic market of Iran has the highest effect on the deterministic programming of its northern forests. To predict timber production in Iran Auto-regressive moving average process 1-2 was employed, verifying the fact that the production rate will decline to about 740 thousand cubic meters. If current trends and decline in timber production continue, Iran would become increasingly dependent on imported timber. To avoid such dependence, or at least reduce it, it is necessary to change the present programming system from deterministic to dynamic, taking into account the internal and external risks in timber market such as inflation and average timber price.


Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.5539/jsd.v5n1p144



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Journal of Sustainable Development   ISSN 1913-9063 (Print)   ISSN 1913-9071 (Online)

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