A Modelling Framework for Assessing Adaptive Management Options of Finnish Agrifood Systems to Climate Change

Heikki Sakari Lehtonen, Reimund Paul Rötter, Taru Irmeli Palosuo, Tapio Juhani Salo, Janne Antero Helin, Yulia Pavlova, Helena Maria Kahiluoto

Abstract


Improved assessment methods for agriculture production systems are needed to identify the risks and
opportunities related to global changes in climate, markets and policies, and the consequences of alternative
options of coping with and mitigating the changes. This paper presents the AGRISIMU modelling framework
developed for ex-ante assessment of alternative policy and management options meant to support farms and
agrifood sector adapt to climate change, maintain biodiversity and reduce nutrient emissions under Finnish
conditions. The modelling framework represents a novel approach to the integration of data and output from
several existing models like a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture, a farm-level optimisation
model, a dynamic crop growth simulation model and models describing the nutrient dynamics in agricultural
systems and a hydrological rainfall-runoff model. The framework is particularly aimed for Nordic conditions and
to serve as an assessment tool that considers multiple factor and scale interactions.

 


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Journal of Agricultural Science ISSN 1916-9752 (Print) ISSN 1916-9760 (Online)

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