Export Credit Insurance and Export Performance: An Empirical Gravity Analysis for Turkey

  •  Ali Polat    
  •  Mehmet Yesilyaprak    


The paper attempts to find out how far Turkey’s official export credit agency, Turk Eximbank, foster export of Turkey during the years of 2000-2015 by employing an empirical trade gravity equation. We estimate different panel gravity regressions for 212 countries for the period of 16 years and the results reveal that a change in export credit insurance positively affect Turkish export, assuming other independent variables are held constant. After applying several post estimation tests we used fixed effect panel specification as the main estimation. In order to allow comparison we also run clustered, robust OLS. Poisson fixed effect (Poisson) and Poisson Pseudo maximum likelihood estimations (PPML) are also estimated to allow for zero trade values in dependent variable in its level. Our analysis also shows that there are significant individual and time effects in panel data structure. Our estimate of different panel gravity regressions for 212 countries and 16 years revealed that increasing export insurance will positively affect Turkish export.

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