Did Tom Brady Save the US stock market? Market Anomaly or Market Efficiency?
- Kofi A. Amoateng
This study reexamines how the National Football conference (NFC) Super Bowl predictor influences investors’ sentiment to affect U.S. stock market returns from 1967 to 2018. The overall empirical evidence significantly supports the NFC predictor-stock market relationship. Even continuous Super Bowl wins by Tom Brady’s New England Patriots could not overturn the Super Bowl stock market predictor (SBSMP). The false positive evidence by the NFC Super Bowl continues to provide investors with extraordinary returns. While the evidence is positive, there is a need for more theoretical research on the SBSMP. The Super Bowl euphoria can create a multiplier effect on the winning team’s local economy and overall stock market (Edmans et al., 2007) and (Palomino et al., 2009). This anomaly has demonstrated that an investor would have outperformed the market by using the Super bowl indicator. However, its predictive power is statistically declining but empirically significant (Thompson & Sen, 2017).
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