Fragile States Index Considering Climate Factors

Over the past few decades, the Earth’s climate has undergone conspicuous changes, some of which have a profound impact on social and governmental systems. The purpose of this paper is to establish a model for measuring national fragile and the impact of climate change on a country. For this purpose, we first define the Fragile States Index (FSI) to measure the fragility of a country based on population, crime rate and education, which are the three aspects that most countries or regions will focus on. Second, we use the FSI to illustrate how climate change affects the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Third, we analyze the definitive indicators of Indonesia and predict the changes of FSI. Finally, the effects of each intervention policy were obtained by analyzing Indonesia’s intervention policy on environmental change. To provide ideas for intervention on climate change.


Introduce the Problem
Through the data and research in recent years, the Climate Change will directly or indirectly affect a country or region.The main manifestations are slow economic growth and regional conflicts, etc.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to alter the way humans live, and may have the potential to cause the weakening and breakdown of social and governmental structures.Being a fragile state can increase the people's resistance to sudden changes in the climate.Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource shortages are all likely to aggravate states with weak governance (Schwartz & Randall, 2004;Theisen, Gleditsch, & Buhaug, 2013).There is evidence that it can trigger violent conflicts when it is combined with weak governance and social divisions.Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a perspective to measure the instability of a country or region in order to make timely adjustment and governance

Relevant Scholarship
History has shown that environmental instability (such as political instability and insufficient natural resources) can easily lead to regional conflicts (Krakowka, Heimel, & Galgano, 2012).Some scholars have studied the impact of sudden climate change on U.S. national security.A combination of factors can lead to a fragile state, a fragile state has several attributes, which usually includes the central government can not provide public services, a widespread corruption and crime, a sharp economic downturn (Menkhaus, 2014).Climate change can directly affect a country's Fragile States Index (FSI), but it can also influence national fragility indicators by influencing economic, social, political and other factors.According to The Fund for Peace, Fragile Country Index (FSI) is used to assess the fragility of a country's collapse, and Generally 12 risk indicators are used to measure the FSI.These 12 indicators measure FSI from four aspects: cohesion, economy, poitical, and social.Each indicator has a score of 10, dividing countries into 4 levels: Alert (index above 90), Warning (index within 90 to 60), Calm (index within 60 to 30) and Sustainable development (index below 30).

Research Design
First, we need to define the Fragile States Index (FSI).This paper focuses on the impact of climate change on FSI, so the direct and indirect impacts of climate should be added to re-develop a model that describes the FSI.Then, according to the existing national classification, national data are re-substituted into the defined indicators, and a new division of fragility is obtained.
In the top 10 most vulnerable countries, choose a country.Combined with the FSI, analyze how climate change has made this country vulnerable from the government reports in this country and related research.Through the control of variables, the model is used to analyze the situation when there is no climate impact in the area and further confirm the impact of climate on the national fragility through comparison.Apply the model to a country that is not in the top 10 most vulnerable countries.From a decisive variable perspective, explain how climate change will make countries more vulnerable.With less data in the past few years, a gray forecast is used to predict when the country will become more vulnerable.
Finally, find the specific policy of the selected country.Through a comprehensive evaluation of the effects and costs of policies, it shows which interventions mitigate the risks of climate change and reduce the fragility of countries.Apply FSI to a smaller or larger scope and determine whether the indicator is still applicable and accurate.If not suitable, we need to put forward the smaller or larger scope of the applicable improvements combining with the actual situation.

Establishment of the FSI Model
FSI is used to assess the fragile of a country's collapse.Ikpe believes that fragility involves "the capacity of the state" to adapt to changing circumstances, protect citizens, absorb shocks and manage conflicts in a manner that does not resort to violence (Ikpe E, 2007).The current common method of evaluation is to measure FSI with 12 risk indicators of conflict.Taking into account the direct and indirect impacts of climate, the FSI is measured by four first-level indicators of social, political, economic and climate according to the original measurement perspective.Each first-level indicator is measured by a number of second-level indicators:    The more urban population, the higher the degree of urbanization in the country, the higher the stability.This indicator is a medium-sized indicator.
Health conditions explain a country's medical and health conditions; it can directly explain the stability of a country's society.In one country, when health and medical conditions are poor, the mortality rate of childhood diseases in the country will certainly be higher.Therefore, Mortality rate (under-5 years old), is used to determine the country's sanitation.This indicator is a minimum-sized indicator.
The level of community safety can be judged by the country's crime rate, which means that the community in the country is safer.This indicator is a minimum-sized indicator.
Education in a stable country should also be more universal, so that the government's expenditure on education can be used to measure the extent of education in the country.This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.
The calculation formula is as follows: Where: is the Urban population growth rate (annual %); is the World average urban population growth rate; is the Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1, 000 live births); is the Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people), acres of park/1000 people. is the Government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP).

Economy Index
Economic indicators are the names and values that reflect socio-economic phenomena.It shows the prosperity of a country because the economy of a country hit by natural disaster or war will not prosper.This indicator measures from 3 aspects: Per capita income level, GDP growth rate and the Unemployment rate.
Per capita income is the average national income of a country over a period of time (usually one year).It is an important indicator of the economic strength of the country and the wealth of the people.The higher the per capita national income, the more prosperous the country's economy.This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.
GDP is the core indicator of national economic accounting, but also an important indicator of a country's overall economic status.GDP is positively related to the country's economic prosperity.However, the higher GDP growth rate may cause inflation, so it is a medium-sized indicator.
Unemployment rate is the main indicator of unemployment in a country or region.From an economic point of view, the unemployment rate of 4% -6% value is more appropriate.It is a medium-sized indicator.

The calculation formula is as follows:
Where: is the GNI per capita (constant 2010 US$); is the world average GNI per capita (constant 2010 US$); is the GDP growth rate (annual %). is the Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force).

Politics Index
Political indicators can reflect the stability of a country's political situation.It is measured from 3 aspects: the Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments; This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.Military Force.
The Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament reflects the importance a country places on women's rights.This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.
Tax revenue rate reflects taxpayers' level of tax exposure.It can reflect the governance idea of a country's ruling party.This indicator should be a medium-sized indicator.
Military Force can show the size of a country's overall national strength, but more stable countries and war-torn countries should have more armed personnel, so this indicator is not easy to judge.But on the other hand, military expenditures come from the national tax revenue, so it can be measured from tax perspective.
The calculation formula is as follows: Where: is the Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%); is the Tax revenue (% of GDP).

Climatic Conditions
This paper mainly studies the influence of climatic factors on FSI.According to the data, we can see that the most direct impact of climatic factors is reflected in grain yield, energy, and water resources.This measure is measured in 3 aspects: the Cereal yield; the CO2 emissions; the Improved water source.
The Cereal yield reflects the agricultural situation in a country.Technological progress still does not change the fact that agriculture is largely affected by the climate.Countries with a suitable climate for planting have higher grain yields.This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.
At present, fossil fuels are still the main sources of energy in the world.The consumption of fossil fuels will certainly produce greenhouse gases, so the consumption of fossil fuels can be measured by The CO2 emissions.The more CO2 emissions, the more industrialized the country is and the more stable the country is.This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.
The droughts or humidities are largely linked to the national water resources, and the more freshwater resources a country has, the better the country will be.This indicator is a maximum-sized indicator.

The calculation formula is as follows:
Where: is the Cereal yield (kg per hectare); is the world average Cereal yield (kg per hectare); is the CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita); is the world average CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita); is the Improved water source, rural (% of rural population with access); is the Forest area (% of land area);

Determination of Weight Coefficient
Earlier, the total score has been proposed models and specific indicators of the evaluation method: In this section, the Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) is used to determine the weight coefficients for each item.Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) is an effective way to analyze the correlation between various factors.The principle of determining the weight by the gray relational degree is to judge the size of the correlation coefficient by the degree of difference between the actual sequence and the reference series.To reflect the contribution of this indicator to the FSI, it is necessary to amplify this slight fluctuation, that is, to give a larger weight, where the gray correlation coefficient is used as the full weight.
The steps of GRA are as follows: Step 1: Normalization based on classification of indicators.
The previous article has transformed all the indicators into the maximum-sized indicator, so this step will not be described.
Step 2: Choose the reference series.
The reference series consists of the best value for each indicator.Through the access to information, Finland is known throughout the year in countries with a higher degree of sustainable development (Fragile states index, Fragile States Index Society Index Economy Index Politics Index Climatic Conditions Index 2014).Finnish data as the series, the world average as the actual series.
Step 3: Compute grey rational coefficient The equation is: Where , Step 4: Calculate the rational grade Add the weight to the formula, the final evaluation model is:

Gray Prediction
Due to the small amount of data, it is more appropriate to use Gray Prediction in predicting future conditions.Specific steps are as follows: Step 1: the necessary inspection and processing of the known data columns.Set the reference data for and calculate the rank ratio of the series: If all levels fall within the that can be covered by , then Series can be used as model GM (1, 1) and carry out grey prediction.Otherwise, it is necessary to transform the series to make it fall into the range of capacitive coverage, that is, go to the appropriate constant and do translation transformation.
The rank ratio of the sequence of is Step 2: to generate a number of columns according to the method generated by the grey prediction accumulation (AGO), we can obtain the predicted value Step 3: the residual is calculated: If the residual is less than 0.2, it can be considered to meet the general requirements, and if the residual is less than 0.1, it is considered to be higher.Then the level ratio deviation test is carried out.First, the reference data , , the calculated level ratio , and then the development coefficient to find the corresponding level deviation.
If the ratio deviation is less than 0.2, it is considered to meet the general requirement.If the ratio deviation is <0.1, it is considered to be higher.
Step 4: according to the needs of the predicted value and the actual problems in the designated area obtained by the model, the corresponding prediction is given.

Fragile analysis in Democratic Republic of the Congo
The title gives the top 10 most fragile states as determined by the Fragile State Index.Abundant mineral resources make the country rich in energy sources, but on the other hand, climate change poses a tremendous threat to the Republic of Congo as most people are engaged in agriculture and forestry.Such as flooding.Due to the special rains affecting human settlements, agriculture, public health and biodiversity, can cause some areas of agriculture to suffer.Coastal areas will experience increased levels of flooding and coastal erosion, while coastal aquifers will become increasingly vulnerable to salt water intrusion, reducing the area of farmland and the fragility of freshwater resources to climate change, which may result in water shortages.These aspects increase the fragility of the country.

The Impact of Climate on Society
Republic of the Congo has diseases that are vulnerable to the effects of climatic.The country's major and second leading causes of death were media transmission and water-borne diseases respectively.Malaria is a major concern in the country because it is the leading cause of death among children and adolescents, and malaria treatment accounts for 40% of health expenditures.Hot water and floods in urban areas also provide conditions for the production of mosquitoes that can cause malaria and increase people's vulnerability to the disease.At the same time, the unemployment rate of young people is high, access to and quality of basic services remain low, especially in the areas of health, water supply, sanitation, education and energy.Urban drinking water is 75% and only 10% in rural areas.The treatment facilities infrastructure and distribution network are outdated and have not kept pace with the growing urban population.

The Impact of Climate on the Economy
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, GDP growth has been strong over the past five years (an average of 5.8%) and the economy is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.Economic growth has led to a decline in poverty rates, improved living standards and a decline in unemployment.However, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is dominated by agriculture and forestry, which are largely affected by climate change and whose impact on the economy in the event of a major climate change slows growth and leads the Democratic Republic of the Congo Increased fragility.

The Impact of Climate on Politics
The political situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is very unstable and there are frequent wars.
Although the war is more likely to be caused by political discord and the influence of other armed forces, it is undeniable that there are also reasons for the resources, especially the plundering of natural resources, and the perennial hot and humid climate may also be one of the reasons for the clashes.Therefore, the impact of climate on the political situation will also lead to an increase in the vulnerability of the country.

The Division of the Fragile Level
The newly defined indicators should also identify whether a country is very vulnerable, fragile or stable.The identification process needs to be based on the final FSI indicator score.

Predic
In order to not in the the countr more vuln The analy geographic   1 shows the specific policies, expected outcomes and related indicators for each of these improvements.The effectiveness and costs of each of these policies can be predicted from Table 1.The government can adopt nationally appropriate interventions to prevent countries from becoming more vulnerable.Table 2 shows the expected results and the degree of change in the corresponding indicator under each policy: The implementation of the policy brings about the improvement of the national vulnerability index.

Conclusions
From the above analysis, it can be known that climate change of a country or region does have a certain degree of influence on the instability of that country or region, and the influence can be divided into direct influence and indirect influence.In other words, climate change will further affect national stability through economic, political and social factors.
Countries around the world are also actively working to reduce the adverse effects of climate change through policy instruments, including technical support in agriculture, land planning, and resource networking.It is worth noting that countries need to develop appropriate policies based on their geographical location and external circumstances.
Take the fragile states of sub-saharan Africa.First, these countries can actively cultivate and apply for the driving forces and participants that support national construction.Second, the establishment of insurance mechanisms to reduce risk volatility to bridge the gap between short-term demand and long-term policy and resilience.Then, you can also invest more on education to cultivate human and social capital.In addition, we can actively promote regional integration and strive to ensure national security.To sum up, construction and social cohesion is a long-term process, which can take various forms at any time, requiring constant attention and appropriate on-site support.Society is surrounded by the state, but the state can run through and transform social relations (Robert Schuman,2009).

Further Thinking of the Model
Although the FSI index as defined in this paper has strong universality, due to the diversity of countries, it is inevitable to apply the model to different countries.Therefore, the national conditions should be classified.Ian Bremer presents a model for a new concept country,which describes the relationship between the stability of a country and its openness, and it describes a skewed J-curve (Briand R,2006).The countries at the bottom of the curve are considered unstable and the countries in the upper part are relatively stable Drawing on the idea of this model, this paper divides countries into four categories: 1) Closed and Vulnerable: This type of country has fewer resources, is more affected by climate, and has a weaker government capacity to solve problems.Such as the Gambia, Chad.
2) Closed and stable: This kind of country is rich in resources and strong in its ability to resist natural disasters.Such as Arab, Russia.
3) Open and stable: The country's infrastructure in this category is well established and can be rapidly adjusted after being affected by natural disasters.For example, Sweden, the United States.
4) Open and Vulnerable: The political environment in these countries is unstable and the country's vulnerability is affected by many external factors.For example, Costa Rica, Nepal.

Figure
Figure Figu The 10 countries are: South Sudan, Somalia, Central African Republic, Yemen, Sudan, Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Afghanistan and Iraq.The Democratic Republic of Congo is chosen to analyze how climate change is actually increasing the fragility of this country.3.1.1The Direct Impact of the Climate The Republic of the Congo is located in central Africa, rich in oil, forests, arable land, hydrology, mineral resources, and agricultural favorable climate.Due to the low population density and the natural environment, agriculture and forestry are the main livelihoods in the Republic of the Congo.The Republic of the Congo is currently included in the "Medium Human Development Category" of the 2014 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Program.

Table 1 .
Policy evaluation

Table 2 .
Policy implementation results Table3-3 shows the changes in social, economic, political and climatic aspects as well as the changes in the general indicators after the implementation of the policy.The forecast results show that the total cost of interventions is about $ 1492.8 million and FSI is up by 7.44%.The changes of specific indicators are as follows:

Table 3 .
The value of the indicator changes