Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood and Food Security of Artisanal Fisherfolks in Lagos State , Nigeria

The artisanal fishery occupies a significant position in the Nigerian economy providing employment for about 5.8% of the Nigerian population and supplying 81.9% of the total domestic fish production. However, climate change is modifying the distribution of fish species with changes in habitat, size, species diversification and productivity. The study, therefore, examined the potential impact of climate change on livelihood and food security of artisanal fisherfolks in Lagos State, Nigeria A stratified sampling technique was used to select 88 fishing communities in Lagos State. A total of 311 respondents were interviewed using structured questionnaire. Data collected include socio-economic characteristics, livelihood parameters, fish species and productivity data while climatic data was obtained from the weather station and meteorology department. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and stochastic frontier catch function analysis. The result of the analysis showed that there were changes in temperature and rainfall pattern which is a deviation from the normal trend. Variation in species diversity and abundance was also observed. There were other sources of livelihood engaged in either as primary or secondary occupation. There is the need to put in place strategies that will mitigate the effect of climate change


Introduction
Fisheries and aquaculture have very important roles for food supply, food security, livelihoods and income generation from local to global levels.Some 42 million people work directly in the sector, with the great majority in developing countries.Adding those who work in associated processing, marketing, distribution and supply industries, the sector supports several hundred million livelihoods.Aquatic foods have high nutritional quality, contributing 20 percent or more of average per capita animal protein intake for more than 2.8 billion people, mostly from developing countries.Allison E. H, et al (2009).In Nigeria, the artisanal fishery occupies a significant position in the economy contributing 4% to the total GDP, providing employment for about 5.8% of the Nigerian population and supplying 81.9% of the total domestic fish production.(FDF, 2007).
Climate change is projected to impact broadly across ecosystems, societies and economies, increasing pressure on all livelihoods and food supplies, including those in the fisheries and aquaculture sector.Food quality will have a more pivotal role as food resources come under greater pressure and the availability and access to fish supplies will become an increasingly critical development issue (FAO, 2008).
According to Nelson G (IFPRI/) 2009, Agriculture's vulnerability (fisheries and aquaculture inclusive) to climate change will put millions of people in developing countries at greater risk of poverty, hunger, and malnutrition thus impacting on their food security status.
The contribution of fisheries to food security is on the increase.Food security according to FAO 1996 is defined as "access by all people at all times to the food needed for healthy and active life".Fish protein has a significant nutritional role in Nigeria contributing as much as 4.8% of total protein consumption and about 30% of annual protein consumption.Apparent fish consumption in 1995 was estimated to be a little over 7.0kg per caput (FAO, 1996) although projected per caput consumption for that year was 13.19kg (FOS 1996).Based on information in the fourth and fifth National Development Plans (1980/85, 1990), 40% of animal protein consumed by the average Nigerian come from fish.
In Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), some communities are dependent on fish not only for animal protein, but also as a source of micro-nutrients, minerals and essential fatty acids.Although, theoretically, these proteins and nutrients could come from other sources, in isolated fisheries dependent communities alternatives are likely to be more expensive, if they are available at all.

Study Area
Lagos state is one of the maritime states in Nigeria.It has an area of 3,577 square kilometers and lies in the south west geopolitical zone of the country (Figure 1 1993) which covers about 22 percent or 786.94 square kilometers of the total area, and a coast line of about 180km and a handful of streams and rivers.Lagos state extends approximately from latitude 6 0 20' North to 6 0 40' North and from latitude 2 0 45' East to 4 0 20' East (Figure 2).All these provide a unique opportunity for fishing activities, which in fact has always been a traditional occupation among the people.
A stratified sampling technique was used to select 88 fishing communities in Lagos State.A total of 311 respondents were interviewed using structured questionnaire.Data collected include socioeconomic characteristics, livelihood parameters, fish species, and productivity data while climatic data was obtained from the weather station and meteorology department.Data were analysed using descriptive statistics.

Socio-economic Analysis
The distribution of respondents by gender (Table 1) shows that 68.8% were males while 31.2% were females.This shows that more men are household heads.Source: Field Survey The marital status profile shows that 83.3% were married, 12.5%, 2.3% and 1.9% were single, divorced or widowed.The age of the household head ranged between 18 and 75 years with a mean of 46.7 year and standard deviation of 10.56 (Table 6).The general distribution showed that majority of the respondent (37.9%) fell within the 41-50 years age bracket (Table 1) while 0.3%, 10%, 15.4%, 28.9% and 7.4% represents the age groups of <20 years, 21-30 years, 31-40 years , 51 -60 years and >60 years of age were 7.4%.This trend shows the proportion of age group distribution involved in active fishing in the study area.The age of an individual has implications on the experience and decision making ability.
The survey results showed that the highest proportion of the respondents (31.5%) had secondary education (Table 1).Those with no formal education were 30.2%, 5.5% had Quranic education, 25.1% had only primary education while 7.7% had OND and NCE certificates.These shows that most respondents 64.3% could read and write The findings of the socio-economic parameters is similar to the result of the work carried out by Abduh and Delgado, 1999, Fregene B.T, 2002, Horemans B, 2006and Omitoyin et al 2009.In the study area, as in other African setting, most households were made up of a man, wife/wives, children and extended family members.All these form the household size.The result of the study shows that 68.5% of the respondent had household size of between 2 and 6; (Table 2) 20.3% had household size greater than 6 while 11.2% were single household.The minimum household size is 1, the maximum is 10 while the mean household size is 4.3 with standard deviation 2.5 (Table 6).This is similar to the findings of Khandker, 1988 which infers that a large family can mean that the fisherman is more likely to work off fishing because relatives can substitute for his labour and supervision and could also suggest that he is more likely to work at home because some relatives might work off the farm to supplement family income.

Primary and Secondary Occupation
The occupations of the fisherfolks during the wet and dry seasons and their distribution are presented in Table 3. Seventy six point two percent of the respondents had fishing as their primary occupation in the wet season while 23.8 % had other activities as their primary occupation while during the dry season, 78.8 % had fishing as their primary occupation and 21.2 % engaged in other activities as their primary occupation.
Fishing is the primary occupation in both wet and dry season.The trend however shows fishing as more prevalent in the dry season than in the wet season.This conforms to the findings of Akanni et al (2007) that fishing is the predominant activity in Marine, lagoon and freshwater water bodies of Lagos State but more people are involved during the dry season than the raining season.Other activities engaged in as secondary occupation to augment their livelihood and enhance their food security are crop production, trading, livestock production, tailoring, fish processing, artisans, civil service, labour and hunting (Table 3).This is similar to the finding of Anosike and Coughenour (1990) cited by Awoyemi (1999), Berachi (2003) and Akanni et al (2007) that by diversifying, the fisherfolk may use resources more efficiently and promote sustainability.Beyond this, other livelihood activities has been known to be a risk reduction strategy used by artisanal fisherfolks.Secondary livelihood activities apart from fishing engaged in by the fisherfolks, the mean income received and standard deviation of other secondary activities is presented in Table 4.It was observed that female fisherfolks engaged in more than two other livelihood activities apart from fishing at a time unlike their male counterparts.This could be largely due to the higher subsistence needs of the women within the household as well as high risk coping strategies imposed on them by their life-style of multiple goals.

Fishing and Marketing Activities
The distribution of fisherfolks by type of fishing engaged in is presented in Figure 3. Sixty two percent (62%) of the respondent are involved in capture fisheries only 26% are involved in culture fisheries while 12 % are involved in both capture and culture fisheries.
The percentage of fisherfolks involved in culture fisheries i.e. aquaculture is on the increase.This is due to livelihood diversification which may not be unconnected with dwindling catch from open water as a result of change in climate which is noticeable in reduction in fish size, diversity and number.The distance covered by the fishermen before appreciable quantity of fish is caught is between one and seventy kilometers with a mean of 13.93km and standard deviation of 9.69km (Table 5 & 6).About 56.3% of the respondents travel as far as 15km for their fishing activities which is an indication that majority of the fisherfolks fish around the same area.This is as a result of inadequate technology, high cost of gear and other inputs and inadequate credit facilities.This is similar to the findings of Jiddawi (2001)  Source: Field Survey (Income calculated from other sources as presented by the respondents) The fishermen's catch were basically sold to fish mongers (47.3%), individuals (37%), while 15.1% sold to both fish mongers and individuals and only 0.6% sold to cooperative societies (Table 5).This pattern of sale may be due to the fact that most fisherfolks are aided financially by the fish mongers and individuals, thus they are committed to selling their catches to them.
The point of sale of fish caught was either by the water side (36%) at the market (29.6%) or in the house (11.3%) while some dispose off their fish at both market and water side (17.7%) or at market and house 5.5% (Table 5).This is similar to the practice in Tanzania (Bagachwa and Maliyamkono, 1994) and Fiji Island (Reddy, 2006) The numbers of craft acquired by respondents from the study area is presented in Table 7. Fifty four point seven percent of the respondents had no craft at all, 35.4% had only one craft, 8.9% had between two crafts 6 crafts respectively.It was observed that only fewer fisherfolks had craft which definitely had effect on their catch, income and by implication their livelihood.Anon, 2001 andBerachi, 2003 had a similar experience in Tanzania.Only 19.3% of the total respondent had acquired one engine; 1.3% had two while 0.6% had 4 engines.78.8% of the respondent do not have engine at all (Table 7).The use of engine would facilitate improve catch since they would be able to move further into the water to get better catch The distribution of fisherfolks by the number of engine acquired in the water bodies shows that majority of the fisherfolks do not have an engine to power their craft which invariably places a limitation on the distance they can cover especially in the marine and lagoon communities.The same is the experience in Gambia and Malaysia (Jammeh, 2002;Squires et al, 2002).

Climatic Factors
The rainfall pattern in Figure 4 shows great variation over time in terms of volume and intensity.High volume of rain water might have led to flooding and consequently washing away of breeding grounds and loss of some fish species (Figure 6).This observation is in line with the observation of FAO, 2008a who reported that climate change is modifying the distribution of marine and freshwater species and that species are being displaced towards the poles and are experiencing changes in the size and productivity of their habitats.It is corroborated by Sharp, 2003 in his submission that climate-related dynamics have had serious consequences on evolution of species, fisheries variability and the livelihood of fisherfolks.The trend of temperature pattern for about 30 years clearly showed high fluctuation overtime (Figure 5).Invariably, since fishing depends on wild populations whose variability depends on environmental processes governing the supply of young stock, their feeding and predation conditions through the life cycle; climate change might have had strong implication on fish breeding, egg hatchability, fry survival, food availability and fish distribution pattern.Fish are poikilothermic animals therefore any change in habitat temperatures would significantly influence metabolism, growth rate, total production, reproduction seasonality, reproductive efficacy, and susceptibility to diseases and toxins as observed by Sharp (2003).Climate change-induced temperature variations would thus have a much stronger impact on the spatial distribution of fishing activities and on their productivity and yields as observed in Figure 6.The fish production pattern as shown in Figure 6 revealed a high fluctuation and variation in catch.
This variation and change in diversity is in accordance with the findings of Cheung, W. W. L et al ( 2009) which says Global climate change is expected to affect marine fisheries productivity because of changes in water temperature, ocean currents and other ocean conditions.Marine fisheries are an important food source, and changes in the total amount or geographic distribution of fish available for catch could affect food security.

Implication on Food Security
In Nigeria with 5.8 % of the population employed in artisanal fisheries and the sub sector providing 81.9% of the total fish production, decrease in catch as a result of climate change have a devastating effect on employment and multiplier effects on income, food consumption (protein intake), malnutrition especially in children, increased prices, livelihood and general wellbeing making many more fisherfolks food insecure.This is corroborated by (FAO, 2008b) which stated that Climate change has both direct and indirect impacts on fish stocks that are exploited commercially with direct effects acting on physiology and behavior and altering growth, development, reproductive capacity, mortality, and distribution while Indirect effects alter the productivity, structure, and composition of the ecosystems on which fish depend for food and shelter.
Climate change has impact on fisherfolk already living in poverty thus alternative sources of livelihood has to be sorted for.Allison et al (2005) attest to the fact that the majority of the world's 200 million full and part-time fisherfolk Nigeria inclusive (fishers, fish processors, traders and ancilliary workers) and their dependents live in areas vulnerable to human-induced climate change, or depend for a major part of their livelihood on resources whose distribution and productivity are known to be influenced by climate variation.Sadovy 2005, McClanahan et al. 2008and World Fish Center 2008, also said millions of small-scale fisherfolk (fishers, fish processors, traders and ancillary workers) in the developing world are among the most vulnerable to climate change.Since according to Allison et al (2005) the livelihoods of fisherfolk living near the waterbodies are highly adapted to extensive fluctuations and the systems are climate-change sensitive, there is the need to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of adverse employed by the fisherfolks along side with reduction of post harvest losses through the utilization of zero energy and environmentally friendly processing and preservation method because Fisheries is critical for Poverty reduction, Economic development and Food security

Conclusion
Improving food security requires putting in place strategies that will mitigate the effect of climate change through making better use of the little fish caught by reducing post-harvest losses through effective methods of preservation and value addition to the products thus increasing the percentage of fish used for direct human consumption, improving access to micro-credit to purchase efficient gear so that the same area is not fished over and over again and use of better gear to reduce fish trash and those discarded at sea.Coping strategies which include alternative sources of livelihood and diversification into farmed fish / aquaculture is also been encouraged.
).It is bounded on the West by the Republic of Benin, in the North and East by Ogun State and in the South by the Guinea Coast of the Atlantic Ocean.It has an extensive network of Lagoon and Creeks in Lagos, Ikorodu, Badagry and Epe local governments (Udo and Mamman

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Map of Nigeria showing Lagos State

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Rainfall distribution in the study area

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Temperature distribution in the study area

Table 1 .
Distribution of Respondents by Gender, Marital status, Age group and Educational Level

Table 2 .
in Tanzania and Squire et al (2002) in Malaysia.Distribution of Respondents according to Household size and Ethnicity

Table 3 .
Distribution of Respondents by Primary and Secondary Occupation in Wet and Dry Season and Water

Table 4 .
Contribution of other Sources of Livelihood (Primary and Secondary Occupation of Fisherfolks)

Table 5 .
Distribution of Respondents by Type of Fishermen, How Fish is Sold, Location, Fishing Type and Distance

Table 6 .
Descriptive Statistics of Age, Household size and Distance

Table 7 .
Distribution of Respondents by Number of Crafts and Engine Acquired