International Journal of Economics and Finance, Issue: Vol.18, No.4

A Preliminary Analysis of the 2025 US Tariffs and Their Impact on EU and Italian Firms

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 03:51:14 +0000

This paper analyses the 2025 US tariff measures and their implications for the European Union (EU), with particular attention to Italian firms. It first reviews the goals of the United States (US) administration - re-industrialization, deficit reduction, and revenue generation - and the criticisms that highlight the limited effectiveness and significant costs of policies based on tariffs. The study then examines the macroeconomic and sectoral effects on EU economies, documenting expected declines in output, worsening terms of trade, and strong impacts on industries such as pharmaceuticals, transport equipment, and basic metals. A country-level assessment shows differentiated vulnerabilities across Germany, Italy, France, and Ireland. The paper also discusses EU policy options, emphasizing the need for strategic restraint, targeted support, and market diversification, and outlines the strategic adjustments that EU firms are undertaking to enhance resilience. Finally, the Italian case is explored, presenting possible future scenarios characterized by both heightened trade tensions and emerging opportunities in global markets.

Assessing the Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Money Supply and Economic Expansion in Nigeria

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 03:54:01 +0000

This study investigates the dynamic impact of monetary policy on Nigeria’s economic growth, focusing on how variations in interest rates, inflation control, exchange rates, and money supply influence macroeconomic performance. Using time-series data from 1981 to 2022 and employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, the research examines both short- and long-run relationships between key monetary variables and economic indicators, including GDP growth and inflation. The results reveal a long-term cointegrating relationship between monetary policy instruments and inflation, suggesting that policy tightening effectively moderates price instability, though often at the expense of economic growth. In the short term, changes in the money supply and exchange rates exert significant but temporary effects on output and prices. Findings highlight that while monetary policy remains an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic stability, structural challenges, such as exchange rate volatility, fiscal imbalances, and overreliance on oil revenues, limit its long-term effectiveness. The study concludes that Nigeria’s monetary policy should be complemented by fiscal discipline, economic diversification, and institutional reforms to achieve sustained economic growth.

Socio-Demographic Factors Influencing Retirement Savings in Japan and the Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 01:55:48 +0000

This paper attempts to model the socio-demographic factors of saving for old age in Japan and determine the impact of digital financial inclusion using demand-side financial inclusion survey data from the Global Findex Database. Weighted probit models were constructed to analyze the responses of over 1,000 Japanese adults and derive each factor’s average marginal effect. The results showed that age is a dominant factor in determining savings for old age, particularly those belonging in the 36-45 year old group who are 43% more likely to save for old age against the reference group. Respondents who use digital financial platforms have a 4% higher likelihood of saving for retirement than those who do not. On the other hand, when both saving for old age and, at the same time, transacting via digital means was modeled, older age groups appear less likely to engage in the said behavior. This may imply the limited reach of these digital platforms, or lower digital literacy among this demographic. In light of Japan’s rapidly aging population, strengthening financial and digital literacy among younger generations, while also expanding access and training for older adults, is essential to promote responsible saving behavior and ensure long-term financial resilience.

Asset Prices and Current Account Imbalances: A Neo-Hobsonian Analysis of the United States

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 01:57:41 +0000

In an increasingly fragmented global economic landscape, both advanced and developing countries have intensified trade restrictions on surplus nations to safeguard domestic industries and to try to achieve balanced international accounts. Utilizing a Neo-Hobsonian theoretical framework, this study investigates whether inflation in asset prices, driven by international capital flows from high-saving nations to lower-saving nations, notably the United States, reduces domestic savings relative to investment and exacerbates current account deficits. Employing comprehensive data from 2010 to 2024, including major asset price indicators: the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and housing prices, we conduct rigorous empirical analyses, alongside extensive robustness checks. Our findings highlight a significant negative impact of asset prices, especially the S&P 500 and housing prices, on the U.S. current account balance. These results robustly support the hypothesis that capital inflows, primarily driven by foreign investments in U.S. assets, substantially influence trade flows and current account dynamics. By addressing existing inconsistencies in the literature and utilizing the latest available data, this study fills a critical gap, enhancing our understanding of global financial imbalances and providing valuable insights for international macroeconomic policy formulation.

Intra-Household Bargaining Power and Expenditure on Children’ Education in Brazil

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 01:59:59 +0000

This study examines the relationship between women’s bargaining power, as measured by their share of family income, and spending on children’s education in Brazil. Using data from the 2017-2018 Household Budget Survey (POF) and fractional Probit models, findings reveal that increased maternal income share is associated with a higher proportion of the family budget allocated to education, with effects reaching up to 1.15 percentage points. The impact is particularly pronounced for daughters, underscoring a gender dimension in resource allocation. Regional and local variations further reveal how socio-economic and cultural factors influence these patterns, with broader effects in less developed areas and more targeted benefits for daughters in urban and economically advanced regions. These results offer insights into how maternal bargaining power shapes financial decisions, highlighting its importance for addressing gender disparities and informing equitable educational policies.

The Impact of Money Supply and Interest Rates on Stock Prices: Insights from Two New Behavioral Experiments and a Proposal for a New Price to Earnings Ratio

Sun, 15 Mar 2026 00:38:33 +0000

This paper examines the impact of monetary expansion and interest rate changes on stock market investment behavior through two behavioral experiments conducted with student as participants, using MS Teams and Excel. The experimental results indicate that increases in the money supply and reductions in interest rates lead to higher share prices. These findings support the hypothesis that an aggressive monetary policy—characterized by an expansive money supply and low, zero, or even negative interest rates—can contribute to the formation of financial bubbles in equity markets. From this perspective, central banks should exercise caution in their interest rate and monetary policy interventions. To reduce the risk of a market crash, any exit from such policies should be implemented gradually.

Non-Linear Effect of Public Spending on Economic Growth: Evidence from Brazilian States

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 03:10:33 +0000

This study investigates the non-linear dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth across Brazilian states from 2001 to 2021. Using a dynamic panel threshold model based on the Seo and Shin (2016) estimator, the research addresses endogeneity and identifies regime-dependent marginal effects without imposing a predetermined functional form. The empirical results indicate a non-linear relationship consistent with the BARS curve framework. For total and current expenditures, the estimated thresholds are 15.30% and 12.96% of GDP, respectively. While spending remains productive in both regimes, its marginal effectiveness is significantly reduced after crossing these thresholds, suggesting that the typical Brazilian state operates in a zone of diminishing returns. In contrast, capital expenditure exhibits an effectiveness threshold at 1.31% of GDP, below which its impact on growth is statistically negligible. These findings remain robust across alternative specifications, including a quadratic GMM model. The absence of a strictly negative marginal effect in the upper regime might be associated with the institutional constraints from the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) and the high degree of heterogeneity among states, which potentially dampen the emergence of a more severe detrimental impact in the aggregate analysis.