Modelling Land Use Changes at the Peri-Urban Areas using Geographic Information Systems and Cellular Automata Model

Naimah Samat, Rosmiyati Hasni, Yasin Abdalla Eltayeb Elhadary

Abstract


In many cities, urban area expansion encroaches into agriculture area especially at the peri-urban region. While it helps to minimize commuting duration and distance between and in and out of cities, peri-urban area, however, experiences land loss due to housing needs, economic transformation from agricultural activities, environmental degradation, and decline of agricultural land without any replacement by alternative economic activity. Land use changes at peri-urban areas is a complex and dynamic process which involves both natural and human systems. In monitoring and evaluating these dynamic changes, GIS can effectively be used to detect trends of urban expansion and predict future growth pattern. This paper discusses the study undertaken in Seberang Perai region of Penang State which experience significant land use transformation since the 1970s. GIS was integrated with Markov Cellular Automata Model to evaluate land use changes and forecast land use pattern until the year 2020. It was found that significant changes have occurred since 1990s and the same urban growth pattern will continue. Major concentration of urban development will grow towards the southern districts. The constraint used, namely valuable paddy fields, manage to control urban development in the northern district. The findings provide invaluable information for planners and decision makers in managing and planning urban growth.


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Journal of Sustainable Development   ISSN 1913-9063 (Print)   ISSN 1913-9071 (Online)

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