Abstract

This paper examines the causality patterns between the lagged trading volume and returns of the Saudi stock market (TASI) for the period from2003:01 to April 2013:05, along with two consecutive sub-periods to account for pre- and post- market collapse of 2006. Using the quantile regression approach, the study finds that the return-volume relations are heterogeneous across quantiles with symmetric tendency across the mean for the full sample period. On the contrary, the study could not support the heterogeneous and symmetric effects for the first sub-sample period. The second sub-sample period is characterized by homogenous across quantiles with statistical evidence of symmetry. Thus, the study concludes that the dependence structure between the lagged volume and subsequent market returns seems to be randomly relying on the chosen period which makes volume unsuitable to be used as explanatory power for returns forecasting.

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