Economic Growth, Regional Savings and FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trivariate Causality and Error Correction Modeling Approach

Rexford Abaidoo

Abstract


Empirical studies examining the dynamic causal relationship between key macroeconomic variables using varied forms of bivariate causality methodology abound in the macroeconomic and finance literature. Causal inference based on such bivariate causality approach however, has been criticized for its inherent likelihood to draw causal inference or attribute causation to variables in scenarios where an omitted variable might have a better claim; Lutkephol (1982), Umberto Triacca (1998). This study is modeled to reduce this inherent weakness by employing trivariate causality methodology through error correction approach. Using aggregate data on Sub-Sahara Africa spanning the period 1977 to 2010, this study finds joint uni-directional causal relationship running from FDI and Gross Regional Savings growth to regional GDP growth. Empirical results further document additional uni-directional joint causal relationship stemming from GDP growth and Gross Regional Savings to growth in FDI inflow into the sub-region.


Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v4n11p40

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International Journal of Economics and Finance  ISSN  1916-971X (Print) ISSN  1916-9728 (Online)

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